Guest: Theresa Hitchens; Topics: Space national security, ASAT tests, weapons in space, Russia, China, secrecy and classification, lack of transparency from the three big players, U.S. claims to increase transparency, Space Force needs and updates.
Please direct all comments and questions regarding specific Space Show programs & guest(s) to the Space Show blog which is part of archived program on our website, www.thespaceshow.com. Comments and questions should be relevant to the specific Space Show program. Written Transcripts of Space Show programs are a violation of our copyright and are not permitted without prior written consent, even if for your own use. We do not permit the commercial use of Space Show programs or any part thereof, nor do we permit editing, YouTube clips, or clips placed on other private channels & websites. Space Show programs can be quoted, but the quote must be cited or referenced using the proper citation format. Contact The Space Show for further information. In addition, please remember that your Amazon purchases can help support The Space Show/OGLF. See www.onegiantleapfoundation.org/amazon.htm.
We welcomed back to the show space policy expert and defense industry journalist Theresa Hitchens. Her last appearance on the show was she was in Geneva on July 29, 2010. The key discussion topics for that program were space and disarmament issues, space weapons, ASATs, and space policy. These were also the key topics for this program 11.5 years later. Sure, the ASAT tests were different, national security issues are more concerning today than they were back then, we have a Space Force, cyber is a bigger threat today and my own personal feeling is that space debris and weapons in space are far bigger issues of concern today than they were in 2010. After listening to Ms. Hitchens, what do you think regarding these issues then and now? Please post your thoughts on our blog.
Once again, the best way to quickly summarize this excellent discussion is to refer you to the tags and key words. I am repeating them here:
"Tags/Key Words: Theresa Hitchens, space policy, Breaking Defense, Space and Air Force reporter, Russian ASAT test, moratorium on ASAT testing, debris field, Russian lying about the test and debris, debris causing space weapons tested, international norms, responsible behavior, United Nations Working Group, U.S. National Space Council meeting, space rules of the road, bipartisan, large commercial interest in rules for the road, Russia & China's UN vote, blocking UN resolution on the working group, Ukraine influence on Russian space activities, consensus needed for Working Group, rescuing commercial astronauts, UN docking rules of behavior, transparency, hypersonics, weapons secrecy, space weapons research, China and the FOB, security classification decisions, Space Force updates, streamlining space acquisition, space systems diversification, old legacy space systems, systems replacement, Chinese-Russian treaty proposal for weapons in space, the coming declassification debate, ASAT consequences, AF-AFRL SSP research, OSAM research focus, early stage research."
We spent a significant amount of time during the early part of our discussion on the Russian ASAT test, the lying by the Russians about it, the debris field it caused and ISS and/or other satellite orbits. Don't miss what our guest said about the dishonest and the fact that Russia and the Russian leaders knew the fact but were still dishonest. In her analysis, she suggested that part of why they may have done the test and then lied about it had to do with tensions around Ukraine, NATO and Russia making a bold policy statement through the ASAT test. She also suggested there was no way Russia did not know the facts about their test. She said they are among the best space engineers and scientists around and they knew what kind of debris would be created by the tests and the impacted orbits. Still, they even endangered their own people as crew on the ISS and still lied. Other part of the Russian test were included in the early discussion so don't miss a word of it.
Weapons in space constituted another key part of our discussion. The proposed Chinese-Russian anti-weapons in space treaty was talked about. Our guest did not support the treaty and told us why but she did say the U.S. made a mistake in not talking to the other parties about it as then they could have raised the issues of why the treaty was not a good one. By refusing to even talk to the parties about it, we lost the opportunity to propose counter terms and show the world what was wrong with the treaty. She said we missed an opportunity.
The ASAT test showed up in the recent first National Space Council meeting and in the creating of a special UN Working Group to come up with international norms and Rules of the Road for space behavior. Our guest got questions about the working group including one that suggested Russia or China could veto anything the working group wanted to do. We had quite the discussion on the UN Veto regarding the Security Council versus the General Assembly. While the working group is a General Assembly creation not subject to veto power like the Security Council, the terms of the working group creation require consensus or nothing counts. The UN defines consensus as 100% support. In the end, both China and Russia can block anything the working group wants to do. When asked about commercial space actors and norms, she said there was a large interest in it from the commercial players as they are putting up more and more assets and are becoming increasingly subject to debris, docking, traffic management and the lack of rules of the road so they too would like to see norms and behavior standards.
The other big topic was national security, space weapons, security classification, the over classification of documents and transparency. Theresa had lots to say on this subject so do hear all of it. In terms of looking for possible items of interest for 2022, she said to keep all eyes on the AF, security organizations, the Space Force and other players to see what they do about transparency. As for space weapons, she said all the big three countries had them but nobody know what is what and the secrecy prevents us from knowing anything that even the U.S. has. She brought this up regarding the claims by China about their hypersonic nuclear glide vehicle. She said nobody knows anything about it but suggested our military and intelligence services no about it and they know about countermeasures but everything is highly classified. She said the Chinese hypersonic weapon is murky at best due to the security classifications so we don't even know the degree to which the glide vehicle was flown, demonstrated or tested. I thought this was an excellent and very comprehensive discussion on the issue so once again, make it a priority for your listening.
For the Space Force and also part of the security discussion, our guest brought up old legacy very costly hardware including GPS. Replacing it with more responsive space, lower cost and rapidly launched items is on the agenda as that would make us less vulnerable to enemy attacks and interference but getting the old hardware replaced was a big deal. She addressed this in terms of acquisition and the Space Force along with other government organizations that have some skin in this part of the game.
As part of the program summary, Theresa pointed out areas of interest for the coming year. Before ending, Gene sent in an email asking about AF and AFRL solar sat research and OSAM. Theresa did not have much info but she said these projects and the research behind them were just at the early stages so look for the need for more funding and lots more R&D.
Please post your comments/questions for Theresa on our blog for this show. You can reach her through me or her information at www.breakingdefense.com.
The Space Show
