Broadcast 3794 Dr. Brian Weeden

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Guest:  Dr. Brian Weeden; Topics:  Russian ASAT test, space traffic management, space weaponization, space liability concerns, consequences for creating space debris and more.

 

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We welcomed Dr. Brian Weeden back to the show for a discussion about the recent Russian ASAT tests.  Several other topics were discussed with our email listening audience plus callers.  Once again, I will use a repeat of the tags and key words here to quickly summarize the topics and the order of discussion.  I will also call out a few topics that got my attention more so than others.

Tags-key words:  Dr. Brian Weeden, Russian ASAT test. space debris, ISS, debris mitigation, countermeasures, deflection ray, active debris removal, Space Force, Light Force, Russian consequences, international consequences, liability, past liability examples, OST Article 9, earlier ASAT tests, Chinese ASAT tests, U.S. ASAT tests, debris in higher orbits, GEO debris issues, space weapons, China and Russia anti-space weapons proposed treaty, Earth to space weapons, new UN working group on space weapons, space national security and political campaigns, bipartisan efforts, rogue state defenses, system limitations, detecting ICBMs, targeting GPS jamming, U.S. relationship with Russia, Ukraine, the Crimea, U.S. - Russian space relationship, Moon Direct with Starship, SLS example, space advocacy role, U.S. Space Traffic Management, SPD3, NewSpace, space National Security, role of Dept. of Commerce and space, normalization of space, 5,000 satellites being tracked in Leo, 1500 satellites tracked in 2006, Russia and China satellite tracking in LEO, EU satellite tracking program.

We started the discussion with the recent Russian ASAT test.  Brian said it was a big deal, then spent considerable time explain why so.  He talked about the debris field the test created, how the field is spreading out over time, why it can potentially impact the ISS and its orbit plus he went over some mitigation strategies of which there are very few.  One thing that caught my attention early in this discussion was the possible use of a deflection ray to get rid of debris.  Brian said it was not so far out as it might sound, said it fell under the topic of active debris removal and then he updated us on the progress being made with such a debris mitigation technique.  He talked about other laser efforts, including an older effort from NASA Ames known as Light Force. 

Todd sent in a note about possible divisions within in Russia and the level of care or concern about creating such debris fields in Russia.  Brian had some interesting things to say per this question.  Along the same lines, Jeremy sent in a note asking about international consequences for this behavior.  Brian went through the history ASAT tests, creating space debris with no accountability for it.  Don't miss this part of the discussion. He included U.S. ASAT tests in this discussion. The questioning then expanded to higher orbits than LEO with a question from listener Jack.  Brian summarized the debris situation in higher orbits all the way up to GEO.

Space weapons were another topic when our guest was asked about the recent announcement of the Chinese hypersonic nuclear capable missile.  Know as a fractional orbit bombardment vehicle (FOB), Brian explained the technology but what was different about this discussion, besides the history dating back to the Cold War with Russia, was his analysis that weapons were created to address an opponents specific weapon system posing a threat to the country.  When it was possible to do an end run around a advanced weapons system given all have some sort of weakness, the end run gets developed.  If the threat was neutralized or minimized the countering system had accomplished its goals. This was a very interesting discussion and perspective so I urge you to listen to all of what our guest had to say on this topic.  Ft. Worth John called in on this discussion saying for example, our anti-missile system had limitations and could not thwart an ICBM attach but was more designed to deter against smaller system attacks by rogue nations.  Once again, don't miss this discussion.  Brian talked about the FOB being designed to counter our polar missile defense system.

Targeting GPS to neutralize it in war came up but Brian said it was far easier to do jamming, even local area jamming which he described.  He talked about methods to counter the jamming but said much of this was not in the open literature due to security classification.  Ft. Worth John was still on the line and switched the topic to the U.S. relationship with Russia which he said was appalling.  Brian and John talked U.S. Russian relationship issues for several minutes.  This included commenting on Ukraine, the Crimea, Putin and his intentions and John's ideas on how to better get along with Russia and why that was so important.  Since this summary is publishing several days after the live broadcast, already this part of the discussion has sparked blog comments from listeners.  Before ending this part of the discussion, Brian was asked about the Russian -U.S. space relationship.  He said it was not great but listen to all of what he said on this topic.  Before moving on, Brian addressed the Chinese-Russian space relationship.

I asked Brian what he knew about the groups trying to bypass the Gateway and Artemis instead using Starship to do lunar direct.  Brian said how hard this would be, he talked about the role of politics in a mission and eventually used the continuation of SLS despite the inefficiencies of it and the rising costs as an example why lunar direct would probably not work despite having engineering superiority.  What do you think of Brian's analysis on this matter?  Post your comments on our blog.

I asked Brian if there was a role for advocates in helping to forge our space policy.  He cited two things.  One was to support a ban on destructive satellite testing and related items causing debris.  The second issue that did not receive enough attention in this discussion was to support Space Traffic Management (STM).  Brian spent the closing minutes of the show discussing STM, why it was so important and needed, the role of the Dept. of Commerce, SPD 3 which dealt with it and the so far lack of attention being paid it by the new administration.  Don't miss what he said about this very important subject and a possible way for advocates to play a part in seeking advances in STM for the better good, even for NewSpace.  Please post comments about this subject on the blog. We want to know your thought on STM.  Before we ended, I went back to the first show I did with Brian around 2006 when he was a Captain in the AF doing STM inside Cheyenne Mountain.  Brian got permission to be interviewed inside the mountain.  He said back then he was tracking about 1500 items.  Today it is more than 5,000 items.  He talked about the need for this to be civilian rather than just military, even said some of the software and programs he worked with are still being used today.  He updated us on Chinese, Russian and EU tracking system.  This was a great way to end the show.  An online comparison from the past to today with a guy who was key for the country and national security working the problem in the 2006 era.  Personally, I found this part of the show going back to that first program with Brian inside the Mountain to be a very valuable compare and contrast for the industry and how the problems have become more complex needing good management going forward.

Please post your comments/questions for Brian on the blog for this show.  You can email him through me or the Secure World Foundation.

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The recent Russian ASAT test and more on space policy

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30 Nov 2021 Dr. Brian Weeden
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