Guest:  Robert Line;  Topics:  Robert's research depicting different recovery scenarios for the US and the space industry post Covid-19.

Please direct all comments and questions regarding specific Space Show programs & guest(s) to the Space Show blog which is part of archived program on our website, www.thespaceshow.com.  Comments and questions should be relevant to the specific Space Show program. Written Transcripts of Space Show programs are a violation of our copyright and are not permitted without prior written consent, even if for your own use. We do not permit the commercial use of Space Show programs or any part thereof, nor do we permit editing, YouTube clips, or clips placed on other private channels & websites. Space Show programs can be quoted, but the quote must be cited or referenced using the proper citation format. Contact The Space Show for further information. In addition, please remember that your Amazon purchases can help support The Space Show/OGLF. See www.onegiantleapfoundation.org/amazon.htm.   

We welcomed Robert Line to the show to discuss his research methodology and conclusions as to what a post Covid-19 US and our space industry might look like.  We started our two segment 134 minute segment with a few announcements plus a brief statement about former Space Show guest and friend, Dr. Fred Singer.  Please see my message about the passing of Dr. Singer posted on Monday, April 13.  Before I turned the program over to our guest, it was clearly stated that Robert was speaking for himself on what he sees coming for the country and for space.  Furthermore, shortly into his discussion, he described in somewhat detail the methodology he used and uses for his analysis of events and situations such as the Covid event underway at this time.  In fact, I stopped him early in his comments to read a listener email asking him what the difference was in what he was doing as compared to the Covid models being used and referenced by the doctors in charge of our Covid and national health policy at this time.  Robert spent time going into great detail to explain the difference in what he was doing as compared to how medical models are created and evaluated.  One thing he noted several times was that his research was much broader with a widened view compared to the data used for the medical models. He also talked about his having more sources of credible information  compared to the Covid models which have been using very poor data and information.

Let me add a note about this written summary and the program.  Robert suggested this program and I liked the idea.  Not only was I anxious to hear what Robert suggested might be a recovery scenario for the US (we focused on the US but we know the problem and our audience is global), I thought we would have listeners checking in to share their views of what a post Covid US might look like along with a post Covid space industry.  While we did take listener calls and I read many listener emails, most were asking Robert various questions, often about his comments.  The callers did not present their view of what the recovery, country and space industry would look like once we were on the other side of the crisis.  Robert's scenarios were the only post Covid scenarios offered on the show.  I hope that many of you listening to this program on archives will share your view of recovery and what the country and the space industry might look like  and over what timeline.  If you are outside the country, we definitely want to hear from you with your views for your own country but also your global assessment regarding the comeback and space.  In addition, rather than producing a detailed summary for this program, this will be a more generalized summary because one really needs to listen to the entire program to get the back and forth our guest talked about as we moved from topic to topic, scenario to scenario, global to nationalist issues and then often back to the starting point.  We bounced around.

Marshall was our first caller as I interrupted Robert's commentary to take the call.  I believe a summary of the talking points offered up by Marshall would be that his call focused on credibility and confidence intervals (CI).  He was focused both nationally and globally, talked about earlier virus outbreaks and the very real likelihood that we will  not have a vaccine for Covid-19.  Don't miss what both Marshall and Robert said about viral vaccines for MERS & SARS, and why no vaccines exist for either of these viruses.  After Marshall left the call, I reminded Robert and the listeners that there was no vaccine for HIV but there were effective mitigation and treatment strategies. 

Robert went on to suggest our way out of the crisis would be herd immunity, that Covid-19 might still be a mass casualty event and that there were just too many unknowns to predict the future with any accuracy.  He also suggested we would be in an 18-24 month recovery timeline with might go on for five years or more with dips and problems along the way.

Ft. Worth John called to talk about Japan and what others were doing. John talked about his own analysis as he has been doing since the crisis started, plus he brought up the use of RO (R naught), the tool used to help evaluate infectious diseases.  This is an easily available Google search term but to save time, if you are not familiar with RO, here is a good definition page:  https://www.healthline.com/health/r-nought-reproduction-number#rsubsubvalues.  While John remained on the phone line, Robert continue discussing his research analyses including talking about the national economy, shifts to nationalism, the probable increase in GEO political competition, increases in telemedicine, AI advances across the board, increases in robotic uses and technology for care situations, more working at home, a drift away from urban environments and more.  Other comments by Robert before moving the second part of the program included his saying that space tourism was probably dead, that it would take travel and tourism years to recover, that the military would make faster and more use of space and that the new Space Force would emerge as being critical to the country if it got the needed leadership. As we broke for the second segment, Ft. Worth John offered some entertainment industry comments plus he had a few words to say about herd immunity.

We started the second segment with my asking our guest to put forth his best case scenario.  Don't miss what he said was the best case scenarios for the nation.  While offering up the best case outlook, both listeners with their emails as well as myself interrupted him from time to time with questions based on his comments.  Don't miss this discussion which in my opinion was very important to the entire program discussion.  Since the second segment was equal in content time to the first segment with our guest but with a slightly different focus, I believe it important though long.  For example, Robert suggested we would see a UBI (universal basic income)  put in place and then he evaluated that in the context of the coming presidential election.  Tax code changes were contemplated as was a rewrite of the personal bankruptcy law to be a law more consumer friendly than it is today.  He also talked about the very negative impact of unemployment on politicians and elections. 

Robert spent time discussing the probability of the post Covid recovery being influenced by extremism on both the left and the right.  He talked about that in terms of the upcoming election.  I then asked our guest just how bright he thought space would be in terms of strength for the US and our economy vis a vis the private sector part of the industry.  Don't miss what he said but for a hint, it was a most positive reply.  Other listener questions dealt with issues facing seniors, space being disproportionally powerful with possible blowback, plus Wanda asked if the recovery could fuel a drive toward the Green New Deal. Robert was adamant in saying no to Wanda but for sure listen to all of what he had to say on the Green New Deal topic.  With the end of our discussion in sight, Kim from Boston sent in a note asking Robert about the role and position of China post Covid, both for the US and around the world.  As you can imagine, Robert had much to say about China as we come out the other end of this crisis.  Note the countries he said would benefit by changes we will make with China.  Do you agree?  Let us know by posting on the blog. 

The Space Force was the final topic for discussion.  Robert said it was crucial to have  critical new leadership understanding the vision and goals of Space Force as the US needs it.  He thought the AF would like to take the space activities back and that it was unclear as to which direction we might go with regards to the Space Force.  Will it get the needed defining leadership?  Don't miss all of his Space Force commentary.

Please post your comments/questions and own ideas on our blog for this show.  You can reach Robert Line through me.

Please post your comments/questions and own ideas on our blog for this show.  You can reach Robert Line through me.