Broadcast 2912 Dr. Patrick Collins

11 May 2017 Dr. Patrick Collins
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Guest:  Dr. Patrick Collins;  Topics:  Space tourism and economics, reusable launch vehicles, SSP, space economics, lunar tourism, Mars.  Please direct all comments and questions regarding specific Space Show programs & guest(s) to the Space Show blog which is part of archived program on our website, www.thespaceshow.com.  Comments and questions should be relevant to the specific Space Show program. Written Transcripts of Space Show programs are a violation of our copyright and are not permitted without prior written consent, even if for your own use. We do not permit the commercial use of Space Show programs or any part thereof, nor do we permit editing, YouTube clips, or clips placed on other private channels & websites. Space Show programs can be quoted, but the quote must be cited or referenced using the proper citation format. Contact The Space Show for further information. In addition, please remember that your Amazon purchases can help support The Space Show/OGLF. See www.onegiantleapfoundation.org/amazon.htm.

We welcomed Dr. Patrick Collins back to the for this 1 hour 58 minute program focusing on all types of space tourism and economics plus much more. Note that in the second segment toward the end, we had a phone glitch and got disconnected from Patrick.  I was able to get him back on the phone to continue our discussion to the end.  In our longer first segment of nearly an hour, we talked about the suborbital space tourism industry, challenges the industry is facing, the time it has taken to get going and more.  Dr. Collins was asked several space tourism economically oriented questions such as the need for the suborbital industry to have repeat customers.  Our guest also talked about the potential for the ticket prices to decline over time once the industry commences commercial operation.  Several times during our discussion, Dr. Collins mentioned horizontal takeoff and landing as a needed evolution in the industry. 

Listeners asked about lunar and Mars tourism.  In his response to this question, Patrick defined three segments for the space tourism industry.  . He said space tourism was suborbital and orbital.  That would be followed by lunar tourism to be followed by orbital groups. He provided timelines and other information so don't miss this discussion.  In addition, he said that Mas was different given the travel times to Mars and that at least for now there was likely not to be a business case for going to Mars. 

Listener Cindy asked about the need to resolve human factors medical issues.  Patrick addressed some of these issues such as radiation but believed that progress would be made in resolving and minimizing the many medical challenges.  He then said space exploration and development needed lots more money, a theme he mentioned and explained several times during our discussion. Expendable launch vehicles were mentioned given their need for high reliability and perfect flight which increased their costs.  We then took an email from Dr. Doug about job loss citing the cruise line industry as an example.  Patrick challenged Doug's assumption and spoke about AI, robotics, 3D printing and other advancements, including some associated with the cruise industry.  Don't miss this first segment concluding discussion.

In the second segment, we talked about rocket reusability economics.  Dr. Collins talked about higher costs up front but lower costs as more and more flights are taken with the RLV.  Don't miss this discussion.  We then switched to talking about space solar power.  Patrick suggested that the economics of SSP for Earth were no more due to lower oil prices and new technologies bringing nearly unlimited oil and fossil fuel products to the market.  He talked about their plans for an SSP 2000 program around the equator but the project never got going.  Het talked about the Russian statements in abiotic oil rather than the traditional explanation for fossil fuels.  He even mentioned theories about oil on Mars and fossil fuels on Titan and elsewhere in the solar system. 

Dr. Collins liked SSP technology but said the economics were not there for Earth but that they were there for space power beaming in space for the return to the Moon, the lunar surface and more.  He even described some unusual uses for it like snow melting satellites for Japan and elsewhere.  Don't miss this conversation. 

Listeners asked Patrick about the Japanese interest level in space.  This was followed by asking him about the Japanese focus on STEM.  I urge you to listen to this discussion as you might e surprised by what you hear. 

B John asked about solar powered satellite mission trades and launch costs plus starting small and scaling up with SSP satellites. He also asked space beaming questions and I brought up the beaming as a potential weapon.  Patrick explained why it was challenging to start small and scale up.  As we were nearing the end of the program, our guest was asked about deep space mining. Our guest also commented on the weapon risk and how governments use their money and the size of budget items suggesting they could be smaller freeing up money for space investment and development.   Next, Dr. Lurio called the program for a discussion about NASA, rocket reusability and other issues.  He mentioned the Goldman Sachs 98 page report on commercial pace.  You can download it here:   www.pdf-archive.com/2017/04/07/goldman-sachs-space/goldman-sachs-space.pdf

Dr. Doug wanted to ask Patrick about retirement communities for the Moon and Mars.  B John sent in a note looking for an explanation of the makeup of the reported $330 million in commercial space revenues per year.  Don't miss what Patrick had to say about this subject.  Doug called in to help clarify the revenue statement and number. 

Dr. Collins offered us concluding comments you will want to hear. Either Doug hung up or we lost our connection with him at the very end of the discussion.  Be sure to post your comments/question on TSS blog for this show.  You can reach Dr. Collins through me and websites listed in his bio on TSS site. 

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